Media Mix Modeling Isn’t a Silver Bullet: Here’s What You Really Need to Know

As Chief Strategy Officer at Power Digital, I’ve run dozens of Media Mix Models (MMM) for brands of all sizes, and here’s the hard truth: it’s not the answer to all your media problems. MMM has evolved, sure—it’s faster and more “actionable” than ever—but for most businesses, it still falls short of being the game-changer many expect.

The Reality of MMM

MMM is fundamentally data-dependent. The more data you have, the better it works. The more stable and predictable your business, the more likely it’ll give you useful insights. But unless you’re working with a massive dataset and high-level econometrics, MMM doesn’t magically separate the noise. It often just points to the same high-performers like paid social, CTV, and search, reinforcing what you already know.

Yes, MMM can claim to drill down to creative or ad set performance—but unless you’re ready to pour serious budget into isolating factors and handling collinearity, you’re not likely to get much precision out of it.

Why Attribution Isn’t the Solution, Either

For the last two decades, marketers have relied on attribution models to measure performance, especially in single-channel setups. But for mature brands with multichannel strategies, attribution is only useful as a rough guide. MMM doesn’t solve this problem. Sure, it can tweak channel mixes or validate some decisions, but the gains are incremental compared to the impact of better creative, smarter products, or a clearer understanding of your customer.

BEATS: How I Prioritize Media Decisions

If you want to get real results from your media strategy, stick to the BEATS framework. Organized by priority, it ensures you focus on what drives the most impact first.

• B: Business-level performance: Business results are the priority.
• E: Experiment-led measurement: Real-world tests like incrementality take precedence over models.
• A: Analysis and modeling (MMM): MMM is useful, but not definitive.
• T: Technology and attribution: Platforms are last in line.
• S: Surveys: Customer feedback on brand awareness is essential for perspective.

If MMM tells you something that contradicts an actual experiment or business performance, trust the latter every time. MMM, attribution, and incrementality are just tools—not a replacement for actual business data.

 

The Takeaway: MMM Is Powerful, But It’s Not Everything

MMM is a helpful tool that’s getting better, but it’s not a silver bullet. Real growth is still driven by optimizing creative, improving your product, and understanding your customer base. Once those are in place, BEATS helps prioritize how to use measurement tools to drive better decisions.

If you’re using MMM as your main driver for growth strategy, it’s time to rethink. Let’s talk about balancing data with reality to fuel real growth.

Connect With Ben Dutter

Interested in diving deeper into media mix modeling, marketing strategy, or how to optimize your media spend? Follow me on LinkedIn for more insights, industry trends, and actionable tips to help you stay ahead in the ever-evolving digital landscape.